Its not an investment. I just hope my tax dollars arent used to bail these folks out. Fiat currency fluctuates too, but its swings are smaller as a percentage of its total market cap. Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. Fiat currency was implemented in 1933 in the USA. Maybe a couple years from now when the mortgage is paid off and we have some play money/money we can afford to lose. And a currency thats not used for transactions isnt a real currency. Not going to do this with you.. You can buy puts in OSTK, MARA, GROW, OSTK and RIOT. Government-issued currencies have value because they represent human trust and cooperation. January 3, 2018, 5:48 am. I dont have time to play PC games 24 hours a day, so I might as well use my fancy computer to make some money while Im away from it. Over 3.5 billion people have no internet access; I am sure this is true as I thoroughly researched it for a chapter I published in a book this year. Its a vicious cycle, but Ive just got to bite the bullet instead of going Wah, it was $2 cheaper a week ago.. Mr. Money Mustache But they dont have to go down for there to be a US stock market crash in real terms. What a bad article. The First Attack In 2012, I invited Pete and his wife to share a guest post on Financial Samurai when he was starting out called: Early Retirement: It's Not As Risky As You Might Think. One way or another, at some point, the cycle will end, and the cycle will start again. The Ramsey Show is a podcast by Dave Ramsey, a financial guru and bestselling author. But from now on, Im going to replace that sob story with this: Man, I missed out on MMM fingernail clippings! to remind myself of the absurdity of that imagined sunk cost Ive burdened myself with. Buying some bitcoin and other coins could be rewarding in the long term. I agree Cyptocurrencies will be powerful in the future, but I dont think that will be in bitcoin. Say I trade you a car for 1 bitcoin on Jan 8. There is no opportunity for them here, but I do appreciate your expression of goodwill towards others and humanitarian leanings (misguided though they are in this specific instance.). But consider some things that will live up the hype.. like improved immunotherapies for cancer or Crisprs ability to cheaply edit DNA line by line. Then I came to my senses and realized that I only want to make money providing value to society. Tulips anyone? Why do I trust the dollar? The reason internet destroys industries (?? ), but to include gold bullion is not quite fair. People went off on many rants back when a single tulip bulb could have the same value as a ocean going ship, just as back then we had many people who couldnt stop talking about how great tulip bulbs are and why we should all be buying them. They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. The real test of if you should be a cryptocurrency supporter:would you be exactly as passionate and spend the same amount of time thinking about it,if Bitcoin were still an obscure piece of code, worth less than one cent, and offered no chance of ever earning you any money? United States . Its a complete rip off. However, there are a couple things you are wrong about here, and are worth commenting on. This financial libertarian streak is at the core of Bitcoin, and youll hear echoes of that sentiment in all the pro-crypto blogs and podcasts. It can have applications in the monetary system, contracts, and even as a component in higher level protocols like sharing files. Of course there is speculation. But just to provoke you, I would ask you this question: What IS money?!? MMM says: Cryptocurrencies are useful for anonymity and evading the government which is bad because we need the governemnt and we need to trust each other. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. Should I just get out now? The issue with the .com bubble was internet companies were given a high valuation with no demonstration that they were profitable or even provided a service/product. January 5, 2018, 8:26 am. And this, MMM There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. He is skeptical of anything that has a tinge of a get rich quick scheme. January 5, 2018, 7:01 am. I believe this is currently the second longest expansion in US history. Mr. Money Mustache ..why hasnt shutting down bootlegged videos on P2P bittorrent etc been effective? Probably because it was the first and still the largest blockchain based tech, a lot of capital has gone into Bitcoin mining equipment. Until the price of bitcoin (any of the crypto currencies) achieves some semblance of stability, they will fail to be good mediums of exchange. January 3, 2018, 12:06 am, Sounds like a classic case of sour grapes to me :-), Cameron Nope I am not a skeptic, and also since I was there then (with pre-internet BBS). Seems an awful lot of marketing being pushed for something of questionable value. The Money Mustache Community . Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? Youve made a great profit, and you can play with that $28k. I read somewhere on Twitter (cant remember where) that you can use anyone who uses Blockchain as a proper noun as a heuristic for how little they know of the space. I read an interesting article regarding the price fluctuations, but I cant find it now. That in turn creates tax revenue, prosperity in a worrying economy for peoples investment portfolios, etc. Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. It is also an opportunity to get the 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. but remember short positions have a possible infinite downside while buying the asset has a possible infinite up side, If you do this youre still speculating on a market that cant be understood right now. Air and the US Dollar. Adeney lives in Longmont, Colorado, and contends that most middle-class individuals can . This way, whichever direction GBTC goes, you wont be in a regretful situation. Humans are conditioned for shortcuts in all aspects of life. Alright then, do you have all your money invested in cryptocurrencies? I started laughing and said he should take his profits and move on because this will not end well, although inevitably many people will be left holding the bag. Hard to shove a tulip bulb through the wires, eh? Apparently they didnt like my edits, where I called out rogue nations for propping up BitCoin as a means to bypass sanctions. If so, this could negate the discount benefit for small purchases. Discussion with friend from nVidia is irrelevant to bitcoin mining. Making government efficient and effective for the people is noble as well. Digiconomist notes this would make bitcoin the 59th biggest energy consumer if it were a country.. Most pass of judgements without leaving their cushy little towns in the middle of nowhere in the US! The strategy isnt sustainable. Because An investment is something that has intrinsic value.. Its hard to quantify the lost energy and human potential, but the cost is real. Publicly verifiable voting as well, when the chains are worth trillions. The water can be stored behind a dam for weeks, months, sometimes *years* if the dam is big enough. Gotta! I am so happy to see this article! MMM calls Bitcoin Stupid and all these things as some kind of Ponzi Scheme! January 3, 2018, 7:20 am. If I lie to you and take your money, thats one thing. How much are these companies worth today? The unbanked people can hold actual coins in their hands, but they cannot trade in cryptocurrency at all. I am Mr. Money Mustache, mild mannered retired-at-30 software engineer who later became accidental leader of Ironic Cult of Mustachianism. You write that These are all things that people have bought in the past, and driven to completely irrational prices,. They get to sell me their give cards at a discount and I get to buy stuff from Amazon for cheaper. When the common person does it, it can cause very big problems. And you dont want it for this purpose anyway after all, do you currentlyhide your money in offshore tax havens and transact your business on black markets? Even if youre the only one doing it. If you want to continue the ride, why not let the original investment of $28,000 ride? Wow, you really have no idea how hydroelectric power works. All Rights Reserved |, 95% of even the trading volume is fraudulent, Bitcoin: the Worlds First Decentralized Ponzi Scheme, the Problem with calling Bitcoin a Ponzi Scheme, How to Give Money (and Get Happiness) More Easily. Gold may be irrational, if you insist that it is. Bitcoins arent duplicable, your fingernails could be replaced by other fingernails and nobody would notice unless they do a mass spectrometry. They cant use these gift cards. Ryan Thomas They are set at the margin, by the marginal buyer. As far as Im concerned, this is the final word on Bitcoin. OK, But What if Bitcoin Becomes the World Currency? BTC wont be the winner but with over 1300 coins the winner has likely been created. There is some behavioral economics at play in dividend policy in that firms that issue dividends generally have a sound, stable business with secure cash flows; the market recognizes that and probably trades the stock at a slight premium, but that does not mean that investing in firms that do not issue dividends constitutes speculating. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Take a look around. An investment is something that has intrinsic value that is, it would be worth owning from a financial perspective,even if you could never sell it. The bidding up of prices in pursuit of speculative riches is not fine. January 3, 2018, 7:12 am. Tim Beck Why? As a result, changes in perceived value result in big price swings. As the legend goes, an anonymous developer published this whitepaper in 2008 under the fake name Satoshi Nakamoto. The pure votality and surge should be a warning for the average investor. Speculating on bitcoin for this reason only really works so long as there is some new greater fool who joins in on the speculation after you have bought. Basic Economics Vijay. LennStar Probably, but I dont care. Consequently, theres a very limited way in which gold can feed you (and bitcoin cant), Uberartist Agree, the valuation of these cryptocurrencies are out of whack. Thats something worth giggling. But its likely just down the toilet. Yes there is. Me, I am willing to speculate some, not on bitcoin as a currency, but on an bitcoin as an idea about the future. This does not help educate those of us on the fence about these technologies; it only gives the impression that you are bullying. When you make this kind of purchase, which you should never do, you arespeculating,which is not a useful activity. I cant help but feel that a big part of the reason for Bitcoins continued rise is that theres no safe, practical way for us Bitcoin-skeptics to actually take a short position on it. I completely agree, investing in Bitcoin is JUST like investing in lottery tickets. January 4, 2018, 7:36 am. And yet this is exactly whats happening with Bitcoin. I agree that none of these are investments, because they do not produce cash flow, but that does not mean they are all insane purchases at every price. Please, Alex Anton is not shouting. This is Part 2 of 2. MMM typically suggests going long in index funds, not bonds. Theres illegal activity in all its shapes and forms (ie. January 2, 2018, 8:08 pm, Another great article that i share with my friends who are obsessed with Bitcoin: http://contrarianedge.com/2017/12/01/bitcoin-millennials-fake-gold/. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/no-bitcoin-is-likely-not-going-to-consume-all-the-worlds-energy-in-2020.html, Biglaw Investor I can have a stash of cash that is inflation proof just in case the government decides to wildly inflate the currency. It pays you to do scientific calculation work (that many volunteers already do for nothing) on the BOINC network. Rick Gardner Pete Adeney, aka Mr Money Mustache "As fluctuations continue over the time and you continue to invest, you get the average price as time goes on," he adds. Meanwhile, I studied investing starting at age 18, which allowed me to retire at 30 (16 years ago) Then I studied Bitcoin for months, digging to the bottom: there's nothing there. The question is if one is worth $15k? This is not going to happen. Humanity deserves an alternative to government (aka the financial elite) controlled money. Or stay in touch with them because they might become millionaires? Firstly, if Jihan is that rich, its probably because he doesnt spend his money. January 3, 2018, 7:23 am. Speculation is essential to set a market price for anything. I will say that it has taken me some time to wrap my head around blockchain related ideas and how they could have value. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm. You respond with an implied personal insult. This will go down in history as the DUMBEST thing Mr. Money Mustache has ever written.it honestly pisses me off how dishonest he is and his he cant see the big picture out of his Statist status quo lenses. Do you really believe that we should go all-in when it comes to trusting our institutional financial establishments? It also helps to have wise, centralized humans (the Federal Reserve system and other central banks) guiding the system. Dit is je geld nu waard als je een jaar geleden Bitcoin, goud of andere assets kocht. farmecologist The problem with speculation is that the few that get in early certainly do make hordes of money at the expense of hordes of people that get in when speculative mania is at its peakinevitably to crash at some point. 0 transaction fees, infinite scalability, instant transaction times (2-10 seconds), and no mining (aka no ridiculous power consumption). (see: Long Island Iced Tea Corp. becoming Long Blockchain Corp.). That is what is pissing me off. i could talk for hours on the subject but Bitcoin is here to stay as it has already become central to a growing number of economies. There are sure going to be a lot of people gnashing their teeth and rending their garments when the bottom falls out of this market. People like planting gardens. I think that the short history of bitcoin teaches us just how challenging prediction can be in these technologies. Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. A lot of stocks never pay dividends though. Please let it go. Go educate yourself first. Also appreciate the utility of sending value to anyone anywhere with an internet connection without asking a middleman for permission doing financial surveillance on you. Its not going to consume ALL the worlds energy? They could also plateau until earnings catchup with prices.. Lets get this straight: in order for Bitcoin to be a real currency, it needs several things: Bitcoin has none of these things, and even safely storing it is difficult (see Mt. Margin of Saving Millennial Boss These people are either shit scared of the changes that are going to come, or dont understand macro economics. To most of the Internet, Mr. Money Mustache is known as the quirky early retirement financial guy, and this is a blog about Money. It will NEVER happen. Even a war on drugs, which has a physical element, isnt being won by central gov. January 15, 2018, 9:02 am. In your example, the 1992 internet might be comparable to Blockchain time will ultimately tell. It just means that some price levels are reasonable, and some are not. Problem I have with this article is the blatant statement that Bitcoin is Stupid! Those who are in it are using it for speculative purposes, not as a currency. Our Banker friend goes on to explain that the first Cancer-Pill might initially see some great sales. Plus, it costs something like $20 per transaction. Now, with that moral sermon out of the way, we might as well talk about why Bitcoin has become such a big thing, so we can separate the usefulness of the underlying technology called Blockchain, from the mania about how people have turned Bitcoin it into a big dumb lottery. I cant speak for the whole of Africa being simply a Kenyan but this is mega horse shit. Vijay What ICO do you own? You could always follow the Long Island Iced Tea model: 1. In short this is nothing more than trust. Thats a tricky question. You could just hold a fraction and still see it grow with time, much faster than most other investment avenues available today. Same wishes to you on your toilet paper fiat money my friend. Vivek Prasannan Im a younger kid so I definitely only heard of Betamax. A digital advertising ecosystem to fund it all. MMMers have unplugged from debt, but putting all faith in the designers of The Matrix seems ironic. Networking. Im not an IT guy of engineer so I could be wrong, but the energy issue and the safety issues you mention makes Bitcoin tera incognito for all intelligent human beings. Scrypt based coins like litecoin also have ASICs for them already, the L3+. I think your point about time wasted is very accurate. January 19, 2018, 6:57 pm. Doubly so because it is now so broken by its development team that it is perhaps the only cryptocurrency that I know of that doesnt even work as currency. Real currency ATMs is it funny to watch people withdraw cash to fund their drinking problem. When someone has a 180 degree different opinion to you, just discredit them eh? Only the most weak and fearful people will allow themselves to be stolen from for the sake of mythical national security that comes from trillions of dollars of military spending. Hmmm..why not pay in bitcoins if it is so superior? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, The Wealthy Accountant Large hydroelectric dams are literally known in the power world for how amazingly good they are at storage. Anytime someone says they are investing in Bitcoin, I have to laugh. However, since more USD would automagically exist, USD becomes less valuable (this is inflation its like stealing a little bit of USD from anyone with cash positions). Good to add this article to the (hopefully) growing list of rational explanations debunking the appeal of what my 76 year-old Grandma, a consummate investor, rightfully calls funny money. It pains me to hear friends, some of whom I have to believe are intelligent people, describing their vast spoils and commitment to cryptos. I was kinda hoping he'd mention if his frugality was a factor or not. In all fairness, cash USD is also used for illegal activities. Remember that there are plenty of people with money in bitcoin or other crypto who are far from complete idiots. The only thing I would add as a further disagreement to MMMs article is that speculation is inherently a GOOD thing. However, governments and institutions are investigating the uses of some platforms, like Ethereum: https://globalnews.ca/news/3977745/ethereum-blockchain-canada-nrc/. January 4, 2018, 9:20 am. their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed.. Personally i feel that the USD is rapidly approaching hyperinflation. I dont feel like making a well-constructed arguments because Im tired and this may make me look like a fool but frankly, I dont care. No one controls it, so no one can rewrite the data. Gold is relatively inert (wont rust except for very tiny amounts of oxydation), it is relatively easy to verify its authenticity (its malleable, the good ol biting the coin to see if it dents, you can melt it to look for impurities as well as hard to fake the colour with lead based forgeries). Ms. Frugal Asian Finance I enjoy and appreciate your blog and the core messages you send the world, and thanks for raising this fascinating subject. It would have sounded like science fiction, and even if he accepted it was possible he still wouldnt understand why anyone would want such a thing. That is wrong. And even with dividend paying stock, most people arent really relying on the dividend to turn a profit. If you cant grasp the difference between the two, then by all means sink your capital into crypto-currencies as they are currently valued. All true. > what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? You invested in GBTC? Cmon people its not rocket science. Your turn to supply real numbers. Seems to Petes point, theres an awful lot of marketing push behind something that has dubious use cases and limited long term value. So by definition we need to start talking about things that dont exist yet because they *cant* exist without immutable blockchains. Crypto currencies are a must have component of your investments and should constitute not more than 10% of your overall investments, based on your risk appetite. So right there you can scratch off any use of blockchain as pointless if it doesnt benefit from immutability. About a 1/3 of it gets taken before the IRS even gets their grubs on it. Andre Kostolany. Market timing is a fools errand anyway. The only flaw with your fingernail analogy is that most of your devotees would only be too willing to fork over $70,000 for them. Mining other coins can still be profitable with graphics cards, mainly ETH/ETC. January 2, 2018, 8:53 pm. January 2, 2018, 9:18 pm, MMM, heres a calculator that updates to show the real time profitability of mining various coins: Pretty much. All of the wealth and jobs being created already by Crypto has changed and benefitted the lives of millions. Banks and elites will remain even with Bitcoin, and if it goes your way it will probably the miningfarms and people who collect the most. Then you have to pay a ton of interest to borrow it, and be lucky with the timing. As platforms. January 2, 2018, 7:09 pm. If you're like most Americans, you're a few . To keep things non-promotional, please use a real name or nickname(not Blogger @ My Blog Name). Bitcoin (aka CancerPills) has become an investment bubble, with the complementary forces of Human herd behavior, greed, fear of missing out, and a lack of understanding of past financial bubbles amplifying it. I 100% agree with what Vijay has been saying. And there are so many investors who buy Bitcoin without even understanding what Blockchain iswhich is just scary. Taxation does not give money purchasing power. Blockchain is simply a nifty software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. Meanwhile in China there are multiple football fields sized bitcoin farms. Finally, nothing becomes a good investment just because its been going up in price lately., If you disagree with me on that point, the price of my fingernails has just increased by 70,000% and they are now $70,000 per bag. A real, usable currency CANNOT have such huge fluctuations. I have seen several bubbles grow and then burst, and one thing you learn is that an actual bubble rises like crazy and then totally pops. I have these lovely tulip bulbs for sale, please PM me. I advise you look at the 10-year PE ratio. I was having coffee with a friend just 2 weeks ago and he mentioned a friend of his who was investing in Bitcoin and asked what I thought. Missing the forest for the trees kind of thing. 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. I agree that Bitcoin isnt an investment. Good comments Jon. Evidently you werent invested in Pets.com and other rising stars with no hope of ever getting profitable. We will see you on the other side of the crash. In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. So, all of the normal, previous ways of saving have been destroyed & the banks/corrupt bankers get bailed out, over & over & the regular people are sick of it. Good post. However, in 2004 when Facebook was being launched it was looked at as a funny little friend site. Bitcoin is not a bubble, its the pin :), Not looking so good right now But in reality, both stocks AND bonds are in a bubble. Bitcoin only has one, scarcity , and even that is debatable. That has happened before in the world. The bitcoin price isnt rising because people are buying the coins to conduct real business. Doh! I dont think attacking how Bitcoin is being used is a good argument because of this. But its not some spectacular Instant Trillionaire piece of magic. Ten years later and the price is still nowhere near that prior high, with it currently trading around $60. It is 14 January, 2021 when I am writing this. On the popular Coinbase it will cost you about 4% just to exchange USD for BTC. Is the theory that eventually there wont be anymore banks? ie beauty counter for nerds. Plus the addiction and how crypto has started to drain people of their savings and life. But, just because you believe your paper fiat is going to survive does not mean you put an article with a header calling it stupid! Take the decentralization, the trustlessness, the miners or the currency out and you throw the immutability out. Definitely not a speculative bubble. It has now grown quite a bit, of course. This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone. I even read about these things for fun, with Simon Singhs The Code Book and the Neil Stephenson novel Cryptonomicon being particularly fun shortcuts to pick up some of the workings and the context of cryptography. Because when the Northeaster blows through my town and knocks down a power line, I want to pay the 15 year old kid who knocked on my door and shoveled my driveway $30 bucks. January 2, 2018, 7:05 pm. If you read your history on this subject you would understand why I dont. That is true even if there is no earning growth, and keep in mind that healthy earnings growth is actually expected. If you dont have fiat money to buy the bitcoin then someone is going to have to start getting paid in btc. So we need more credible people to speak out against it. Again, only in nominal terms. (based on July 20th blog post) Started by caracarn. This is why bitcoin was created in the first place. I really enjoyed the MMM article but I strongly disagreed with the part about gold. In the mean time, Ill keep selling the bitcoins that I purchased for $30 each at $15k a pop. Cryptocurrencies are the key to humanitys survival. I like the way he analyzes investments. 1. =. There is a reason that central banks own most of the wotlds gold. In one of my IRAs I bought some AAPl in 2009 for $28k. All points noted. 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